North Carolina House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Paul Bonham a 60% chance of winning the North Carolina House 2018 primary. Paul Wright won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Paul Bonham — 60% model odds
  2. Paul Wright — 28% model odds (won)
  3. Carl Persson — 12% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts