Montana Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Matt Rosendale a 31% chance of winning the Montana Senate 2018 primary. Matt Rosendale won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Matt Rosendale — 31% model odds (won)
  2. Jon Tester — 26% model odds
  3. Russ Fagg — 26% model odds
  4. Troy Downing — 5% model odds
  5. Albert Olszewski — 4% model odds
  6. Scattered — 2% model odds
  7. Steve Kelly — 2% model odds
  8. Timothy Adams — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts