Missouri Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave David Faust a 26% chance of winning the Missouri Senate 2018 primary. Claire Mccaskill won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. David Faust — 26% model odds
2. Claire Mccaskill — 12% model odds (won)
3. Carla Wright — 12% model odds
4. John Hogan — 12% model odds
5. Angelica Earl — 12% model odds
6. Travis Gonzalez — 12% model odds
7. Leonard Joseph, Ii Steinman — 12% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts