Minnesota House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tom Emmer a 76% chance of winning the Minnesota House 2018 primary. Tom Emmer won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Tom Emmer — 76% model odds (won)
2. A.J. Kern — 12% model odds
3. Patrick Munro — 12% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts