Minnesota House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ilhan Omar a 47% chance of winning the Minnesota House 2018 primary. Ilhan Omar won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Ilhan Omar — 47% model odds (won)
  2. Margaret Anderson Kelliher — 39% model odds
  3. Bobby Joe Champion — 6% model odds
  4. Jamal Abdi Abdulahi — 3% model odds
  5. Frank Nelson Drake — 3% model odds
  6. Patricia Torres Ray — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts