Michigan Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave William F. White a 53% chance of winning the Michigan Senate 2018 primary. John James won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. William F. White — 53% model odds
2. John James — 16% model odds (won)
3. Sandy Pensler — 16% model odds
4. Marcia Squier — 16% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts