Michigan House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Clyde Darnell Lynch a 28% chance of winning the Michigan House 2018 primary. Brenda Jones won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Clyde Darnell Lynch — 28% model odds
2. Rashida Tlaib — 14% model odds
3. Brenda Jones — 14% model odds (won)
4. Rashida Tlaib — 14% model odds
5. Bill Wild — 14% model odds
6. Ian Conyers — 14% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts