Maryland Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Chris Chaffee a 16% chance of winning the Maryland Senate 2018 primary. Tony Cambell won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Chris Chaffee — 16% model odds
  2. Evan M. Cronhardt — 16% model odds
  3. Tony Cambell — 8% model odds (won)
  4. Christina J. Grigorian — 8% model odds
  5. John Graziani — 8% model odds
  6. Blaine Taylor — 8% model odds
  7. Gerald I., Jr. Smith — 8% model odds
  8. Brian Charles Vaeth — 8% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts