Maryland Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Marcia H. Morgan a 20% chance of winning the Maryland Senate 2018 primary. Ben Cardin won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Marcia H. Morgan — 20% model odds
  2. Ben Cardin — 11% model odds (won)
  3. Chelsea Manning — 11% model odds
  4. Jerome "Jerry" Segal — 11% model odds
  5. Debbie "Rica" Wilson — 11% model odds
  6. Lih Young — 11% model odds
  7. Richard "Rikki" Vaughn — 11% model odds
  8. Erik Jetmir — 11% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts