Maryland House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Aruna Miller a 48% chance of winning the Maryland House 2018 primary. David Trone won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Aruna Miller — 48% model odds
  2. Roger Manno — 33% model odds
  3. David Trone — 5% model odds (won)
  4. Andrew Duck — 5% model odds
  5. Nadia Hashimi — 3% model odds
  6. Chris Graves — 3% model odds
  7. George English — 3% model odds
  8. Christopher Hearsey — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts