Maryland House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Adam D. Demarco a 59% chance of winning the Maryland House 2018 primary. John Sarbanes won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Adam D. Demarco — 59% model odds
2. John Sarbanes — 18% model odds (won)
3. John Rea — 18% model odds
4. Eduardo Rosas — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts