Massachusetts Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John Kingston a 53% chance of winning the Massachusetts Senate 2018 primary. Geoff Diehl won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. John Kingston — 53% model odds
2. Geoff Diehl — 16% model odds (won)
3. Beth Joyce Lindstrom — 16% model odds
4. All Others — 16% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts