Massachusetts House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Juana B. Matias a 26% chance of winning the Massachusetts House 2018 primary. Lori Loureiro Trahan won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Juana B. Matias — 26% model odds
  2. Lori Loureiro Trahan — 19% model odds (won)
  3. Rufus Gifford — 10% model odds
  4. Alexandra E. Chandler — 8% model odds
  5. Barbara A. L'Italien — 6% model odds
  6. Daniel Arrig Koh — 5% model odds
  7. Beej Das — 5% model odds
  8. Jeffrey D. Ballinger — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts