Indiana Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Luke Messer a 46% chance of winning the Indiana Senate 2018 primary. Mike Braun won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Luke Messer — 46% model odds
  2. Mike Braun — 41% model odds (won)
  3. Todd Rokita — 12% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts