Illinois House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Lauren Underwood a 51% chance of winning the Illinois House 2018 primary. Lauren Underwood won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Lauren Underwood — 51% model odds (won)
  2. Matthew Brolley — 32% model odds
  3. Jim Walz — 3% model odds
  4. Victor Swanson — 3% model odds
  5. John J. Hosta — 3% model odds
  6. George Weber — 3% model odds
  7. Daniel Roldan-Johnson — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts