Illinois House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Sapan Shah a 78% chance of winning the Illinois House 2018 primary. Douglas R. Bennett won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Sapan Shah — 78% model odds
2. Jeremy Wynes — 10% model odds
3. Douglas R. Bennett — 8% model odds (won)
4. Aloys Rutagwibira — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts