Illinois House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave D. Vincent, Jr. Thomas a 56% chance of winning the Illinois House 2018 primary. John D. Elleson won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. D. Vincent, Jr. Thomas — 56% model odds
2. John D. Elleson — 15% model odds (won)
3. Sargis Sangari — 15% model odds
4. Maxwell Rice — 15% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts