Illinois House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave David Merkle a 33% chance of winning the Illinois House 2018 primary. David Merkle won, matching the model's top pick.

1. David Merkle — 33% model odds (won)
2. Patrick Harmon — 33% model odds
3. John F. Morrow — 33% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts