Idaho House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Michael W. Smith a 65% chance of winning the Idaho House 2018 primary. Cristina Mcneil won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Michael W. Smith — 65% model odds
2. Cristina Mcneil — 17% model odds (won)
3. James Vandermaas — 17% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts