Iowa House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Scattered a 58% chance of winning the Iowa House 2018 primary. Bryan Jack Holder won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Scattered — 58% model odds
  2. Bryan Jack Holder — 21% model odds (won)
  3. Mark, Jr. Elworth — 21% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts