Hawaii Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Charles Haverty a 40% chance of winning the Hawaii Senate 2018 primary. Arturo Pacheco Reyes won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Charles Haverty — 40% model odds
2. Matthew K. Maertens — 40% model odds
3. Arturo Pacheco Reyes — 19% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts