Hawaii House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Kaniela Saito Ing a 50% chance of winning the Hawaii House 2018 primary. Ed Case won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Kaniela Saito Ing — 50% model odds
2. Doug S. Chin — 19% model odds
3. Donna Mercado Kim — 19% model odds
4. Beth Keiko Fukumoto — 4% model odds
5. Ed Case — 3% model odds (won)
6. Ernest Yorihiko Martin — 3% model odds
7. Sam Puletasi — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts