Florida House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Kristen Rosen Gonzalez a 36% chance of winning the Florida House 2018 primary. Donna Shalala won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Kristen Rosen Gonzalez — 36% model odds
  2. Donna Shalala — 35% model odds (won)
  3. Michael A. Hepburn — 23% model odds
  4. David Richardson — 4% model odds
  5. Matt Haggman — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts