Florida House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Fred Costello a 77% chance of winning the Florida House 2018 primary. Michael Waltz won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Fred Costello — 77% model odds
2. Michael Waltz — 12% model odds (won)
3. John Ward — 12% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts