California Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective
The model's final pre-election forecast gave Kevin Mottus a 13% chance of winning the California Senate 2018 primary. James P. Bradley won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.
- Kevin Mottus — 13% model odds
- James P. Bradley — 8% model odds (won)
- Arun K. Bhumitra — 8% model odds (won)
- Paul A. Taylor — 8% model odds
- Erin Cruz — 8% model odds
- Tom Palzer — 8% model odds
- Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente — 8% model odds
- John "Jack" Crew — 8% model odds