California Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Kevin Mottus a 13% chance of winning the California Senate 2018 primary. James P. Bradley won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Kevin Mottus — 13% model odds
  2. James P. Bradley — 8% model odds (won)
  3. Arun K. Bhumitra — 8% model odds (won)
  4. Paul A. Taylor — 8% model odds
  5. Erin Cruz — 8% model odds
  6. Tom Palzer — 8% model odds
  7. Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente — 8% model odds
  8. John "Jack" Crew — 8% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts