California Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Colleen Shea Fernald a 14% chance of winning the California Senate 2018 primary. David Moore won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Colleen Shea Fernald — 14% model odds
2. David Moore — 9% model odds (won)
3. Ling Ling Shi — 9% model odds (won)
4. John Thompson Parker — 9% model odds
5. Lee Olson — 9% model odds
6. Jason M. Hanania — 9% model odds
7. Don J. Grundmann — 9% model odds
8. Rash Bihari Ghosh — 9% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts