California House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Morgan Murtaugh a 42% chance of winning the California House 2018 primary. Morgan Murtaugh won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Morgan Murtaugh — 42% model odds (won)
  2. Brett A. Goda — 30% model odds
  3. Matt Mendoza — 20% model odds (won)
  4. Shawn Gino Kane — 8% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts