California House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Danny Casara a 25% chance of winning the California House 2018 primary. Omar Qudrat won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Danny Casara — 25% model odds
2. Omar Qudrat — 15% model odds (won)
3. James Veltmeyer — 15% model odds (won)
4. Michael Allman — 15% model odds
5. John Horst — 15% model odds
6. Jeffrey Cullen — 15% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts