California House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Juan Carlos "Charlie" Mercado a 50% chance of winning the California House 2018 primary. Juan Carlos "Charlie" Mercado won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Juan Carlos "Charlie" Mercado — 50% model odds (won)
  2. Kevin Mitchell — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts