California House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ammar Campa-Najjar a 43% chance of winning the California House 2018 primary. Ammar Campa-Najjar won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Ammar Campa-Najjar — 43% model odds (won)
2. Josh Butner — 28% model odds (won)
3. Patrick Malloy — 28% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts