California House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Rocky J. Chávez a 35% chance of winning the California House 2018 primary. Diane L. Harkey won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Rocky J. Chávez — 35% model odds
  2. Diane L. Harkey — 34% model odds (won)
  3. Joshua Schoonover — 6% model odds
  4. Kristin Gaspar — 4% model odds (won)
  5. Brian Maryott — 4% model odds
  6. Mike Schmitt — 4% model odds
  7. Craig A. Nordal — 4% model odds
  8. David Medway — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts