California House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Harley Rouda a 29% chance of winning the California House 2018 primary. Harley Rouda won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Harley Rouda — 29% model odds (won)
  2. Hans Keirstead — 29% model odds (won)
  3. Rachel Payne — 25% model odds
  4. Omar A. Siddiqui — 4% model odds
  5. Laura Oatman — 4% model odds
  6. Michael Kotick — 3% model odds
  7. Deanie Schaarsmith — 3% model odds
  8. Tony Zarkades — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts