California House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tony Cardenas a 50% chance of winning the California House 2018 primary. Tony Cardenas won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Tony Cardenas — 50% model odds (won)
  2. Joseph "Joe" Shammas — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts