California House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Bryan Caforio a 29% chance of winning the California House 2018 primary. Bryan Caforio won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Bryan Caforio — 29% model odds (won)
2. Katie Hill — 29% model odds (won)
3. Jess Pelaez Phoenix — 26% model odds
4. Mary Pallant — 16% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts