California House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tatiana Matta a 25% chance of winning the California House 2018 primary. Tatiana Matta won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Tatiana Matta — 25% model odds (won)
  2. Wendy Reed — 25% model odds (won)
  3. Mary Helen Barro — 25% model odds
  4. Kurtis Wilson — 25% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts