California House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mark Desaulnier a 50% chance of winning the California House 2018 primary. Mark Desaulnier won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Mark Desaulnier — 50% model odds (won)
2. Dennis Lytton — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts