California House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Josh Harder a 40% chance of winning the California House 2018 primary. Josh Harder won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Josh Harder — 40% model odds (won)
2. Virginia Madueño — 35% model odds
3. Michael J. "Mike" Barkley — 9% model odds
4. Michael Eggman — 5% model odds (won)
5. Sue Zwahlen — 5% model odds
6. Dotty Nygard — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts