California House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Roza Calderon a 38% chance of winning the California House 2018 primary. Jessica Morse won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Roza Calderon — 38% model odds
2. Jessica Morse — 37% model odds (won)
3. Regina Bateson — 13% model odds (won)
4. Robert Lawton — 13% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts