Arizona Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Martha Mcsally a 69% chance of winning the Arizona Senate 2018 primary. Martha Mcsally won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Martha Mcsally — 69% model odds (won)
2. Kelli Ward — 9% model odds
3. Angela Green — 9% model odds
4. Joe Arpaio — 5% model odds
5. Nicholas N. Glenn — 5% model odds
6. William Gonzales — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts