Arizona House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Dave Giles a 46% chance of winning the Arizona House 2018 primary. Stephen L. Ferrara won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Dave Giles — 46% model odds
2. Stephen L. Ferrara — 43% model odds (won)
3. Irina Baroness Von Behr — 11% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts