Arizona House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Lea Marquez Peterson an 80% chance of winning the Arizona House 2018 primary. Lea Marquez Peterson won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Lea Marquez Peterson — 80% model odds (won)
2. Brandon Martin — 7% model odds
3. Casey Welch — 7% model odds
4. Daniel Romero, Jr. Morales — 7% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts