Arizona House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ann Kirkpatrick a 49% chance of winning the Arizona House 2018 primary. Ann Kirkpatrick won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Ann Kirkpatrick — 49% model odds (won)
  2. Maria "Mary" Matiella — 25% model odds
  3. Matt Heinz — 16% model odds
  4. Bruce Wheeler — 3% model odds
  5. Billy Kovacs — 3% model odds
  6. Barbara Sherry — 3% model odds
  7. Yahya Yuksel — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts