Arizona House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Steve Smith a 36% chance of winning the Arizona House 2018 primary. Wendy Rogers won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Steve Smith — 36% model odds
2. Tiffany Shedd — 35% model odds
3. Wendy Rogers — 30% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts