Arkansas House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Clarke Tucker a 78% chance of winning the Arkansas House 2018 primary. Clarke Tucker won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Clarke Tucker — 78% model odds (won)
2. Gwen Combs — 17% model odds
3. Paul J. Spencer — 3% model odds
4. Jonathan Dunkley — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts