Washington House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Adam Smith a 50% chance of winning the Washington House 2016 primary. Adam Smith won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Adam Smith — 50% model odds (won)
2. Jesse Wineberry — 25% model odds (won)
3. Daniel Smith — 25% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts