Washington House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Derek Kilmer a 50% chance of winning the Washington House 2016 primary. Derek Kilmer won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Derek Kilmer — 50% model odds (won)
2. Paul L. Nuchims — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts