Vermont House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Peter Welch a 42% chance of winning the Vermont House 2016 primary. Peter Welch won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Peter Welch — 42% model odds (won)
2. Peter Welch — 42% model odds
3. Scattered — 12% model odds
4. Scattered — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts