Texas House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Lamar Smith an 85% chance of winning the Texas House 2016 primary. Lamar Smith won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Lamar Smith — 85% model odds (won)
2. Matt Mccall — 5% model odds
3. Antonio "Tony" Diaz — 5% model odds
4. Todd Phelps — 3% model odds
5. John Murphy — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts