Texas House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mac Thornberry an 84% chance of winning the Texas House 2016 primary. Mac Thornberry won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Mac Thornberry — 84% model odds (won)
  2. H.F. "Rusty" Tomlinson — 16% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts