Texas House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Joe Barton an 85% chance of winning the Texas House 2016 primary. Joe Barton won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Joe Barton — 85% model odds (won)
  2. Collin Baker — 6% model odds
  3. Darrel, Jr. Smith — 6% model odds
  4. Steven Fowler — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts